| ‘실적 랠리’ 시동 어디까지 오르나…점검포인트는 | ||
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증시에 3분기 실적호전 전망이란 재료에 따른 랠리가 펼쳐지고 있다. 물론 미국 금리 인하에 따른 글로벌 유동성, 미국과 이머징마켓의 신고가 경신 등에도 힘입어 2000 안착을 넘어 전인미답의 새 지수대로 돌진하는 기세다. 대신증권은 위험자산 선호 현상이 당분간 지속되고 서브프라임 모기지 이후 주가 상승률이 부담스럽지 않기 때문에 주가가 조만간 2100을 넘어 연말까지는 2200에 도달할 것으로 내다봤다. 대우증권도 지난 여름 2000 돌파와 최근 2000과 비교시 현재의 기업 밸류에이션 부담이 상대적으로 낮아 상승여력이 충분하다고 전망했다.
무엇보다 주가가 새 역사를 쓰는 배경에는 기업실적 호전이란 호재가 버티고 있다. 삼성증권은 9일부터 발표되는 3분기 실적을 골프 용어에 비유해 ‘시장은 이글(eagle), 업종은 버디(buddy), 종목은 파(par)’로 표현했다. 시장 전체적으로는 비중 확대 전략을 유지하지만 종목은 슬림화로 대응해야 한다는 설명이다.
삼성증권이 분석하고 있는 기업을 대상으로 추정한 결과 3분기 매출액은 8.7%, 영업이익은 28.1%, EPS는 25.2% 증가(전년 동기 대비 기준)하는 것으로 나타났다.
실적호전이 구체화한 것으로 파악되는 가운데 업종별 실적도 이에 부합한 것으로 보이고 있다. 증권을 필두로 조선ㆍ기계, 보험, 운송, 화학, 자동차업종의 영업이익이 50% 이상 증가하며 실적회복을 주도할 전망이다. 반면 통신서비스, 제지, 음식료, 석유제품의 경우 영업이익 기준으로 마이너스 성장하는 것으로 추정됐다.
다만 실적이 개선됐다고 모두 주가가 상승하는 것은 아니기 때문에 똑같은 재료라도 몇가지 신중히 살펴볼 필요가 있다.
첫째, 실적이 시장 예상치를 상회했느냐 여부다. 예상치 상회는 새로운 상승 촉매로 평가될 수 있기에 코스피 2000 안착은 물론이며 추가적인 주가 레벨업으로 연결될 수 있다.
둘째, 주가가 실적호전 뉴스를 미리 반영했느냐 여부다. 실적과 밸류에이션이라는 두 가지 잣대를 동시에 고려할 필요가 있다.
셋째, 4분기 이후 실적에 대한 전망이다. 특히 관심을 가져야 할 대상은 턴어라운드 가능성이 높은 종목으로, 소비재를 눈여겨볼 만하다.
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